Japan export growth slows but beats forecasts

Released on - Monday,26 July , 2010 -09:24 20

Japanese exports continued to rise in June on shipments to Asia but the pace of growth was the slowest this year amid signs that recovery may be losing steam as global demand falls, data showed Monday.

"We previously saw a robust, V-shaped recovery in exports after the financial crisis. Now the speed of the recovery is tapering off," said Atsushi Kamio, economist at the Daiwa Research Institute.

However, the slow-down was less sharp than economists had expected.

Exports rose 27.7 percent to 5.87 trillion yen, their seventh consecutive monthly rise, beating market expectations of a 23.1-percent increase but still below May's rise of 32.1 percent, the finance ministry said.

Imports jumped 26.1 percent to 5.18 trillion yen, led by crude oil, liquefied natural gas and non-ferrous metals.

Strong demand for automobiles, high tech products and factory parts have helped offset a weaker domestic picture, enabling Japan's biggest companies to return to profit and bring about a tentative economic recovery.

But anxiety remains about the impact that the withdrawal of global stimulus measures and European debt will have on Japanese exports, with equipment and components makers also facing a knock-on effect from falling demand for Chinese goods.

Analysts warn that risks to export demand remain as world leaders embrace tighter fiscal policies to help rebalance a global economy knocked off its axis by the financial crisis.

The recent appreciation of the yen versus the euro and the dollar may also pose a risk, government officials have warned recently, as it threatens to erode the overseas profits of exporters such as Sony and Honda."We have to monitor the effects of the global trend of fiscal tightening," said Kamio.

But he added that Japan's recovery was expected to continue despite external challenges, albeit more slowly.

Robust Asian demand for Japanese cars and steel also contributed to the seventh straight monthly increase in exports, the finance ministry said.

Japanese exports to Asia rose 31.7 percent, with those to China up 22.0 percent at 1.1 trillion yen, led by demand for automobiles and engines.

Imports from China also jumped 27.5 percent to 1.1 trillion, led by electronics and audio products.

The figures compared with US-bound exports valued at 914.5 billion yen, up 21.1 percent, and American imports to Japan estimated at 537.1 billion yen, up 9.6 percent.

However, Japan's exports to EU nations slowed more drastically. They increased just 9.0 percent to 611.2 billion yen, compared to a 17.4 percent rise in May.

Despite the comparatively weak figure, the overseas slowdown was unlikely to derail Japan's economy, Norio Miyagawa at Mizuho Securities Research & Consulting told Dow Jones Newswires.

"The economy has recovered to a good level. You don't need to worry that this slowdown in exports will lead to the double-dip recession or another severe economic downturn in Japan," he said.

Japan's trade surplus reached 687.0 billion yen (7.8 billion dollars) in June, marking the 13th straight month of improvement on year-earlier levels, according to the Ministry of Finance.

For the first half, Japanese exports reached 33.1 trillion yen, up 37.9 percent from a year ago, while imports rose 23.3 percent to 29.7 trillion yen.